With less than a month until Exit Day, David Greene examines the most & least likely outcomes on the UK’s horizon
As we head swiftly towards the door, it has become rather trite to say the outcome grows increasingly uncertain; no deal, the May deal, a softer Brexit, a second referendum. Other than the first option, all may be combined with a delayed exit. The profession has made it clear that it sees substantial risk in a no-deal Brexit.
Everything is difficult to predict because majorities for each option in Parliament are wafer thin, but the betting man in me proffers an order of outcome in which the range is from the least likely to the most likely:
- No deal There seems to be an absolute majority in Parliament against a no-deal, although it would require primary legislation to force the government’s hand;
- A second referendum While the Labour Party has indicated, albeit somewhat half-heartedly, this is now their preferred option, another referendum is very difficult to put into effect practically and politically, not least because of the impending European
